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LIVE SIGNALS AND ANALYSIS

by ortal gretchin
LIVE SIGNALS AND ANALYSIS

Thursday, September 19, 2019

The EUR/USD after falling yesterday and trading below the double Red lines then bounced to close just above the Red support lines. Today we have more upside for the EUR but for the past 11 trading days the price has basically been trending sideward, At this point the price can make it back up to the Blue line before it reverses again, the Blue line is at 1.1076 that would be a good place to open a Sell trade with the downside target being the double red lines at 1.1025. Eventually this will resolve with the price likely headed lower but if the price is going to trade within an established range we might as well take advantage of it. Wait for the price to reach 1.1075 and open a sell trade placing a stop loss at 1.1087 and a take profit at 1.1025.


Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Crude Oil after the massive move higher on Monday sold off yesterday since there has been no military response yet by Saudi Arabia or the USA. Until Saudi and or the USA responds the price is likely to drift lower. Saudi production is likely to be significantly reduced for months due to the destruction which will limit worldwide supply and cause a move higher in Crude oil moving forward. My guess is there will be a military response of some sort, otherwise MBS will look weak. Trump on the other hand wants to try and keep oll prices low to help his re-election so the response may not be on Iran’s oil facilities. As for today, we have support at the Blue line while the Pink line is resistance. A break of the Blue line or a move below 58.65 will likely lead to lower prices, while a move above the Pink line or above 59.25 will cause the price to move higher. I would be careful with sell trades because a military response is likely coming and will cause the price to move significantly higher at least short term once it occurs.


Monday, September 16, 2019

I wanted to get this chart out to all you Gold traders since it is very significant. This is the daily chart of Gold it shows Gold forming a head and shoulders top noted by the blue. We have the left shoulder, the head and the right shoulder forming now. This is a topping pattern and says that Gold is going lower and likely significantly lower. With the USD about to rocket to the upside and the Indexes also likely to move higher Gold fundamentally should move lower. This chart confirms that we are very close to a drop of about $80/ounce or more. The Red line at the lower end of the price above is where I believe Gold is headed at a minimum. I will follow this up with the exact level where to open your sell trades but this chart is about as bearish as they come and anyone considering buy Gold, Silver or any of the other precious metals should think twice because Gold looks like it’s getting ready to get crushed.


Monday, September 16, 2019

EUR/USD at our target price. Sometimes this stuff is just too easy. Close your sell EUR/USD here and then sell again if it trades below 1.1015 with a target price of 1.0990


Monday, September 16, 2019

The GBP/USD moved higher over the past week since it was oversold and also on bogus Brexit reports. If the EU was going to compromise on the Ireland backstop they would have when Theresa May was still PM. Because they wouldn’t budge then, they will not budge with Boris Johnson as well. Even though there will likely be some positive reports Brexit is a mess and likely will not be resolved any time soon. The most likely outcome is another extension and then another extension until the end of time. Because of the continued uncertainty it is unlikely there will be a sustained bid and the price of the GBP/USD will likely move lower from here. The Blue line at 1.2425 is the trigger for our trade, I would wait until that support level is broken to the downside before opening your sell trades. The Red line at 1.2375 is fairly strong support so I would sell the GBP/USD when it trades below 1.2425 with a Take profit at 1.2375 using a 12 Pip stop loss above your sell price. Without a break-through with Brexit which is very unlikely the price could challenge the prior lows in the 1.2000 area.


Monday, September 16, 2019

As the DXY has moved higher the EURUSD has move lower as we would expect. Already today the price has bounced off the lower Blue support line but it is likely the price will continue lower. There are 2 places to open sell trades here, first I would recommend selling if the price moves back up to the upper blue line at 1.1077 or if the price trades below the lower blue line or below 1.1058. Once you sell the first target is the 2 red lines in the 1.1035 area and then the purple line at 1.1017. If the positive RSI divergence does confirm then it is likely the EUR/USD will take out the prior lows or below 1.0928. Sell the EUR/USD once it trades below 1.1058 with a target price of 1.1017. If the positive RSI 3 divergence does form on the DXY we will then open multiple swing Sell trades.


Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Update on the DXY, earlier today I pointed out the 2 consecutive inside days the past 2 days and said that was 2 very bullish sign. This is not magic, professional traders look for this and it influences their decisions to buy or sell. If you never heard of an inside day before | mentioned it then you would not even know what to look for and how it influences price. Because we had 2 inside days In a row which is extremely rare the big boys have stepped up and are buying the USD today. As you can see the price has now reached our upper Pink line, a move above that line will cause further USD upside causing the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and Gold to head lower. There is so much to technical analysis out there, I am showing you only what you need to know to be successful. Please don’t get discouraged though since | have been doing this 25-years and a lot of what I do is by instinct. Ultimately, being successful in trading comes down to making your decision -making process as simple|as possible. In order to do that we only want the information that is necessary to make trade decisions, that’s why my charts are so simple but also work so well.


Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Crude Oil yesterday went right to our target price at the upper Blue line and then sold off. Why did this happen is the question? The reason why the price goes right to our target price and then heads lower is that professional commodity traders know exactly where the resistance level is located. Once the price reaches this level the Pro’s sell their long positions and some open short positions taking the price lower. Once the price heads down retail then jumps on the sell side taking it down even more. Last night the API report was very Bullish for Oil, today’s EIA report will also likely be bullish pushing the price higher. The Red line is our main support today at 57.80 so we want the price to stay above this level in order to maintain buy positions. I still think Crude Oil has a lot more upside back to the mid 60’s or higher so we want to remain on the buy side only. The trade here is to buy at 57.80 using a .25 cent stop with the target once again the upper Blue line at 58.80. The price will likely spike higher once the EIA report is released today, no matter what close your buys during this spike.


Wednesday, September 11, 2019

I’m showing the bigger picture with Gold so I can explain the possible trades here. We have 4 major support/resistance lines, the Blue line is the immediate resistance level 1494.90. If that level is violated to the upside, we then have the Pink line at 1501.50. With the USD likely headed higher as well as the US indexes today I would be remiss to open a Buy trade here unless the price trades above the Blue line and then | would use very strict risk management. The Red line was tested yesterday at 1484.40 and held but if that line is violated to the downside there is no real support until the Orange line in the 1480 area. The trades here are open a small buy if the price trades above 1494.50 with a take profit at 1501.50. I think we| might still have another leg lower here so selling at the Blue resistance line at 1494.50 and closing at the red line at 1484.40 is likely the higher probability trade. If you sell, if the price trades above 1495 close your sell trade and consider opening a buy up to 1501.50.


Tuesday, September 10, 2019

 Crude Oil has headed higher as expected this morning, I’ve added another resistance line which is the purple line which today is at 58.61. For those with buy trades and large profits I advise closing your buys at the purple line, once the price reaches the 58.55 area. The price is likely headed higher but taking profits there is the smart move and will give us the opportunity to buy again likely at a lower price. Close your buys at 58.55 and we will then reevaluate.


Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Starting with Gold today we see the price came down to our main support level denoted by the Blue line. We could have a sizable bounce here, its going to depend on the price moving above the Red line at 1498.75. If the price can trade above 1498.75 then there is a good chance the price can retrace back to 1510 or so. If the Blue line is violated to the downside then we have the Orange line at 1477.50. Do not buy Gold unless it trades above the Red line at 1498.75 since there could 1 more leg lower. If the price does trade above 1498.75 then you can open a small buy with a 1510 target. If the price trades below the Blue line at 1486, then you can open a sell trade with a target of 1477.50. If the price bounces or not is going to depend on the USD and the US Indexes but follow the prices I have listed above in your trade decisions. I would be remiss to buy Gold here since its in a big move lower and can continue lower.


Monday, September 9, 2019

Crude Oil paints a very simple picture, the Blue line is the main resistance level while the Red line is the main support. As you can see the price has traded between these 2 lines today and can’t decide if it wants to move higher or lower. Fundamentally the price should go up but since we only trade what we see and not what we think its going to take the price moving above the Blue line at 57.25 to buy or below 56.63 to sell. The S&P futures are up 7 points now so if the Indexes rally again then it should take WTI higher. If the price does trade above 27.25 then the Pink line is the next resistance level at 58.50. The trades here would be to Buy WTI if it trades above 57.25 with a target price of 58.50, or Sell WTI if it trades below 56.63, since it is likely the price will go up I haven’t drawn the support level below the Red line but if the price does break down I will update the chart to show your target price for your sell trades.


Monday, September 9, 2019

The EUR/USD is moving up in sympathy with the GBP, and is now above the Blue lines and headed up to the Red line resistance area. The GBP is moving higher because of decent economic numbers with the GBP growing a whopping 0.3% year over year. Usually numbers like these will cause a temporary move to the upside and then the price will retrace the gains normally. The EUR/USD also is moving higher here with no real resistance until the price reached the 1.1053-1.1058 area. I don’t know if the price will reach those levels but if it does Sell the EUR/USD in the 1.1053 area using a 15 Pip stop loss above your selling price. The target to the downside is the upper Blue line at 1.1029 and then the lower Blue line at 1.1018. Most likely the move higher is a fake out and the price will then fall once we get to the US markets open later today.


Wednesday, September 4, 2019

I wanted to update Gold since it is forming a negative RSI 3 divergence with today’s red candle. As we know Gold has been trading 100% inversely to the US stack Indexes, Indexes up and Gold down, and Indexes down and Gold up. Today we have the S&P futures trading up 27 points which is causing the move lower in Gold. The US markets open in an hour, if we have follow- through and a move up in the S&P and Dow Jones Gold will likely continue lower. If today finishes Re or down it will confirm the negative RSI 3 divergence in Gold. Notice we have a higher high in price while we have a much lower high in the RSI 3 creating the divergence. This divergence can still be broken today if Gold rallies higher so it won’t be confirmed until the close tonight. If the divergence is confirmed we can then expect a move lower down to the Blue and Red lines below. The Blue line today is at 1508 while the Red line is at 1498 today, those would be your targets if the negative RSI 3 divergence confirms today.


Tuesday, September 3, 2019

This chart is the daily chart of the S&P futures, the Blue line is the immediate support level which will help to influence the prices of Gold, Crude Oil, and currencies. If the Blue support line breaks and the S&P heads lower you can expect Gold to move higher, Crude Oil lower and currencies will likely see the USD move higher as there is a movement to safety and right now the USD is seen as safer then the EUR or the GBP. As you can see this line held support on Friday and again today so its an important level that will not only determine if stocks move up or down but will affect the above assets as well. You want to see the S&P futures hold the 2890 level and then reverse higher, if that happens, we will see Gold down, Crude Oil up and the USD likely lower. This is the way that the different market interact and also the reason why any signal service sending signals without knowing how this plays out are likely to be wrong. I always say that trading is not black and white, there are multiple things to consider as you plan on placing winning trades.


Tuesday, September 3, 2019

The EUR/USD is getting pounded like the GBP today with today being the 7th straight down day. As you all know we have been Sell for the past 7 days and earning large profits. The EUR/USD has very strong support at the Blue line at 1.0925 and that level will likely hold. The DXY did pull back from the 3 Red resistance lines but as the day progresses there will be another attempt to break that level. We remain Sell in the EUR/USD with a target price of 1.0925. Continue to sell the bounces, once the price does reach the Blue line close you sells and wait for my instructions.


Monday, September 2, 2019

 Monday, September 2, 2019

As the DXY is moving through the lower Pink resistance lines the EUR/USD is attempting to break through the Red support line as well. The way this works is once the EUR/USD trades through the Red line it will bring a lot of sellers in to take the price lower. That Blue line at 1.0945 is looming large, I recommend closing your sell EUR/USD trades when that level is reached since we can see the EUR/USD reverse off that level. If there is further EUR/USD downside we can always sell the EUR/USD again if it trades below 1.0945. Remember taking profits is good, lets take our money and reevaluate once we reach the Blue line which will hopefully happen today.


Monday, September 2, 2019

 Monday, September 2, 2019

 In the EUR/USD I’m showing a little more expanded chart today to show you how knowing how to draw correct support/resistance lines is so important in predicting target prices and also in using strict risk management. I put in Blue Arrows showing the where the Red line starts and how the price on Friday came right down to this line and then bounced. Today we have the Pink line at 1.0995 as our major resistance to the upside and the Red and Blue lines as the support levels to the downside. The RSI 3 just dropped below 7 telling us the price is oversold but not yet extremely oversold. Normally the RSI 3 will reach 5 or slightly below 5 before reversing. My guess at this point is the price of the EUR/USD will reach the Blue line at 1.0945 and will then reverse and begin its next swing to the upside. We remain Sell on the EUR/USD with our targets being the Red line at 1.0962 and then the Blue line at 109.45.


Thursday, August 29 2019

Quick update in the DXY the price topped this morning right at our target 98.32 and pulled back to 98.25 and is againattempting to break through this strong resistance level. This bodes well for the USD moving forward since the pullback should have been larger. Typically, when the price attempts to break through important resistance it will fail and reverse or fail and pullback and then attempt again to break through. Typically, the breakout occurs on the 3 rd attempt as the sellers give in and the buyers break the price out. The breakout can also happen on the 2 ric attempt so be ready if the DXY trades through 98.32 to reopen your USD long trades again in the price will likely continue higher to the Pink lines.


Wednesday, August 28 2019

 Wednesday, August 28 2019

Beginning with the DXY today we see the USD recovered somewhat yesterday after bouncing off the Blue support line at 97.87. The Blue line is important support and a move below that line could indicate the USD is reversing and about to head lower. To the upside we have the 2 Pink lines as well as the Orange as resistance with the Red line (Blue Arrow) the most logical level where the DXY should go before potentially reversing. Unless the price trades below the Blue line or below 97.87 we have to assume there is more upside for the USD. The 2 Pink lines at 98.13 are fairly strong resistance and can stall out the price as is the lower Orange line at 98.26 but it is likely the price will continue higher up to the Red upper triangle line before it potentially will reverse. Because of this we remain long the USD, as you know long USD means Sell on the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD with a Buy in the USD/CHF. I’m sending the individual charts shortly with exact levels of where to open and close your trades.


Tuesday, August 27 2019

 Tuesday, August 27 2019

Morning everyone beginning with the DXY today we see after a big move higher yesterday the price is pulling back again today as the US market’s major indexes head south as well. We see yesterday the price made it to the middle Pink resistance line and today we have the USD headed lower with the Red line the initial resistance at 98.01 and the 2 Blue lines the support levels just pierced. On the way down the next area of support is at the crossing orange lines at 97.80 which are both strong support lines. Right now, the major currencies are reacting close to 100% of the time to the major stock indexes moving up and down. Today the S&P futures are down 11 points, just remember a simple Trump tweet saying the trade talks with China are progressing would cause the S&P to flip from down big to up big and that would cause the USD to reverse higher as well. Because of how strong the crossing Orange lines are I think that might be a good area to open sell EUR/USD and GBP/USD trades. I will be sending the updated individual currency charts shortly. Once again look to open long USD trades once the DXY reaches 97.80.


Monday, August 26, 2019

 Monday, August 26, 2019

I wanted to show this on the 5-minute chart of the GBP/USD for educational purposes. The Blue arrows show a positive RSI 3 divergence, notice the lower low in price above but as the price formed a lower low the RSI 3 below formed a higher low and thus a positive divergence. Whenever we have this setup the price will move higher since its an extremely bullish setup. What happened here is exactly what normally happens the price rose 16 Pips causing the RSI 3 below to become overbought with it reaching above 90 (Red Arrow) where it reversed again and tested the 1.2230 support level which thus far has held


Monday, August 26, 2019

These days in the financial markets is like the 4th of July in the USA with all the fireworks. On Friday everything was going as expected until Trump ordered all US companies to move business operations out of China. That took the S&P which was up to down huge, caused Gold to rally $30 an ounce and then hit the USD as well. I’ve been doing this since the early days of the Clinton presidency and in all these years have never dealt with a US president like this. In reality Trump is sabotaging his re-election efforts next year since his tariffs are hurting US companies and consumers alike. Then within the last hour news came out that China wants to restart trade talks, the reality is Trump’s people likely called China but who really cares since this is a positive development. Immediately after the report the S&P futures moved from down 23 to up 16, with Gold dropping about $15/ounce and the USD moving higher as the chart


Thursday, August 22, 2019

 I wanted to show everyone what happened on the 5-minute chart as the price of the GBP/USD reached our amazingly strong upper blue resistance line. First off you must realize that the significant support and resistance lines act like magnets pulling the price to them. But look what happened here, as the price moved higher to the major resistance level the relative strength below was weakening showing the price rising not from overwhelming buyers but from a lack of sellers. On the chart we see the price going higher but the RSI 3 going lower, this is exactly what we would expect to see as a price is reaching a significant resistance level. So far, the price has pulled back about 30 Pips, there is support at that lower blue line in the 1.2235 area so the price could bounce there. You may want to close your sell in that area and then reopen the sell GBP/USD when the price trades below 1.2235 with the next target being the red lines below in the 1.2170 area.


Thursday, August 22, 2019

Here is the daily chart of the GBP/USD, with the so-called positive Brexit news it has caused the price to move significantly higher. The upper Blue line in the 1.2270 area is significant resistance, and the price will likely pullback from there. A high probability trade is to sell the GBP/USD at that level using a tight 12 Pip stop loss. Target price will remain open since I think it’s possible it could pullback to the red lines in the 1.2170 area so there is a potential 100 Pip profit here. Remember to use the stop loss since who knows when more news can come out.


Thursday, August 22, 2019

 Thursday, August 22, 2019

Update on the USD futures, as expected after the bounce post PMI reports in the EU, the trend has resumed with the USD headed higher and the EUR, GBP and AUD all headed lower. | Interestingly notice the low today in the DXY was our Orange support line and then the price reversed and easily traded back above the Blue resistance lines. Remember one thing, “The Trend Is Your Friend”, if we always trade with the trend, we will be on the right side of the trade 90% of the time and above. Trust your analysis and use it to give yourself an advantage that 90% of other traders do not have. Next target to the upside in the USD is the double red lines above. I’m betting that the next time the USD futures reach that 98.45-98.46 level it will have the power to break through. Remember USD Futures up means the EUR, GBP, AUD and usually Gold are moving lower.


Thursday, August 22, 2019

 Thursday, August 22, 2019

The reason why we had a sudden move higher in both the GBP and EUR is because the PMI (Purchasing managers index) report came in above expectations in both Germany and France. These types of reports, can cause a temporary move in the currency but typically won’t change the trend. Thus, there is a high likelihood that the previous trend will resume for both the GBP and the EUR which is down. With yesterday’s down day in the GBP/USD we now have confirmation of the negative RSI 3 divergence here on the daily chart. While it is possible, we could have a higher high in price forming a double negative divergence it is more likely that after a move higher this morning the price will resume its downtrend and head down to the double blue lines below at 1.2085}, If the price does move higher up to the Red lines above 1.2168-1.2175 area you can sell the GBP/USD since its unlikely that the price will make it through that area of resistance.


Thursday, August 22, 2019

The GBP just had a spike higher in the last 15 minutes causing the DXY chart to flip from Green to Red, still have not found the news, there was a positive meeting between Johnson and Merkel last night on Brexit but Boris Johnson faces a tougher task in a meeting with Macron in France today. The Fed minutes last night were bullish for the USD as the Federal Reserve is now less likely to lower rates at their next meeting. On the chart we see we have significant support
here with the 4 Blue lines, if the DXY price breaks through the lower blue line at 98.17 then there will likely be more USD downside. Tomorrow Jerome Powell is giving an important speech| at Jackson Hole where he is likely to explain future money policy which will also likely cause market volatility. I’m not calling a reversal yet in the USD but as the Blue arrow shows the RSI 3 is weakening as traders sell the USD. Remember we have a negative RSI 3 divergence in the GBP/USD so this move higher could be just a blip with the downtrend resuming as the day


Wednesday, August 21, 2019

 Wednesday, August 21, 2019

 Today has been a painfully slow day without much price movement in any of the assets other than a brief move higher in WTI. Here the GBP/USD is now headed lower towards our crossing Red and Blue support lines. Remember if the GBP/USD finishes lower today it will confirm the negative RSI 3 divergence shown by the Blue Arrows causing the price to continue lower likely until Friday if not next week as well. Remember if the price reaches the crossing lines at 1.2086 close your sell trades. We will reopen sells again once the price trades below the red and blue lines with our next target being the Pink line down at 1.2015.


Wednesday, August 21, 2019

The EUR/USD bounced higher yesterday once the DXY sold off and is moving slightly higher today. At the moment though the price is stuck at the Red resistance line where I think its possible it will head lower. If the DXY is to head higher then the EUR/USD will head lower. A low risk trade is to sell the EUR/USD here at 1.1101 and place your stop loss just above the red line at 1.1106 which would allow you to get in at the beginning of a possible move lower. Here I’m looking for a lower low in price, below the prior swing low but a higher low in the RSI 3 to form a positive RSI 3 divergence leading to a new swing higher in the EUR/USD. For now, we remain sell looking for a move down to the 1.1060 level or slightly lower. A move above the Red line though would cause us to close the sell trade and reevaluate the chart.


Wednesday, August 21, 2019

Yesterday the USD Futures reached our target at the Blue line and then immediately sold off as the institutions targeted that level to close Long USD trades. As the big boys sold the USD the momentum players jumped to the short USD side taking the price down to our super strong Pink support level where the price again reversed and is now headed higher again. I like to look ahead at the potential setups forming, right now it looks like we will have a higher high in the DXY but a lower high in the RSI 3 causing a negative divergence. For this to happen the DXY must trade above the Blue line, thus this says USD will resume its upswing and likely make a higher high then yesterday’s candle. Yesterday is what we call a countertrend day which usually happens 1-2 times during a multi-day price swing. Today I would wait until the DXY trades above the red line or above 98.32 before opening sells in the EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD. We will need to be careful as the price arrives at the Blue line but if I’m right the Blue line should be broken to the upside when the price arrives there.


Tuesday, August 20, 2019

The DXY appears to be setting up for a move higher here with a positive RSI 3 divergence at the recent low. There is also an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming on the 5-minute chart as well which would result in a move up to our 98.46 target. The GBP/USD just hit our 1.2070 support level but as I said previously the GBP/USD likely is headed down to the 1.2020 area before there is a chance for it to reverse higher for a few days. Stick to the plan I sent out earlier as nothing has changed and our expectations remain the same.


Tuesday, August 20, 2019

Crude Oil ran into the Red resistance line this morning at its high and has pulled back. Crude Oil has been trading the US Indexes for the past several weeks where when the S&P was up Crude Oil moved higher as well and vica versa. Later today we have the API report and tomorrow the EIA inventory report which will have some influence on prices moving forward. Looking at the US indexes it appears there is more upside coming and thus with the indexes likely heading higher Crude Oil should move higher as well. We have immediate resistance at the Red and Blue lines at 55.50 and then 56.80, above that area we then have the Pink line at 58.75. WTI likely has more upside today, would open a buy here and close it at 56.75 and then re-buy WTI once it trades above 56.80 with a target price of 58.75.


Tuesday, August 20, 2019

The EUR/USD is becoming oversold with the RSI 3 now down to 8.38, we don’t worry about a reversal though until it reaches 5 or below. The Red line is our line in the sand, once that line is broken to the upside a reversal will likely be happening. until then we have more downside with our next target price being the Blue line at 1.1041 and then the Pink line at 1.1015. My first post trumps all though so when the DXY reaches the Blue line at 98.46 1 still advise closing your sell trades. We will likely reopen sells again but wait for my update advising you to do so.


Tuesday, August 20, 2019

The GBP/USD after the fake out rally higher yesterday to hit everyone’s stop losses before the big boys took the price down again, has now broken through the 1.2107 support level (Blue Line). Notice how fast the price dropped 20 Pips once the 1.2107 support was violated. There will be continued downside here with a bounce likely at the red line at 1.2070 but the price is headed lower with our ultimate target being the Orange line at 1.2020. Expect a possible bounce once the Pink line at 1.2061 is reached as well. Each time the price bounces is another selling opportunity where you want to sell once the price reaches the prior support levels which have now become resistance. Bottom line is the GBP/USD is going lower, don’t allow the games Wall Street plays to trick you into thinking the price has reversed when it hasn’t. I will alert you all once the price is about to reverse, we only trade with the trend, consistency is everything in trading.


Monday, August 19, 2019

Quick follow-up on the prior update, as you can see the strong support at 1.2107 and the positive RSI 3 divergence did cause a nice bounce that is now above the blue resistance line. Sometimes a perfect RSI 3 divergence like this will reverse the price, usually though the price will rise until the RSI 3 reaches 95 or so and then the price heads back down again. What’s important here is to learn this setup since it results in winning trades close to 100% of the time. We also use this setup on the daily charts for swing trades, once we have an RSI divergence on the daily chart the price will normally trend for 5-7 trading days in the same direction allowing us to earn huge profits.


Monday, August 19, 2019

 Monday, August 19, 2019

Let’s begin with the USD futures again today, on Friday we see the price reached the lower Red line and then pulled back. The double Blue lines are very strong support and that level must hold to keep the USD moving higher. Based on the RSI 3 below there should be more upside to the USD at least in the first part of the week, with the expectation the USD futures will reach the 2 orange lines above before the price reverses. This means that we will be remaining Sell in the EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD with buys in the USD/JPY and USD/CHF. Gold is getting hammered today as the US indexes continue to recover from last weeks sell-off. Gold moving lower should also help the USD move higher. I will be updating the Gold chart today to show target prices for your sell positions.


Thursday, August 15 2019

The USD futures have been responding to the volatility in the US Indexes as has Gold. The S&P was up 20 this morning and then down 10 and now back up 10 points all on rumors about China’s response to Trumps new Tariffs. With the Index futures headed lower earlier, Gold headed higher and now that the S&P is back positive Gold has pulled back and headed lower. The USD has reacted in a similar way, with hour to go before the US markets open most of the assets we trade have been reacting to the S&P up and then the S&P down. Most likely we will get a bounce in the equity indexes today which will support the USD higher and Gold lower. The volatility is crazy today but keeping a strict trading plan will help us place the right trades. We remain USD up, Gold Down, Crude Oil up and stock Indexes up for now. Once we reach the US open, I will update the trading plan.


Thursday, August 15 2019

The GBP/USD setup is fairly simple today with a triangle pattern forming during a downtrend. Triangle patterns are typically continuation patterns with 90% breaking in the direction of the prevailing trend. Here we see the trend is down so we expect once the triangle resolves itself the GBP/USD will move lower. How do we capitalize on this is the question? The answer is typically the price will move from the upper arm of the triangle down to the lower arm and then back to the upper line. Today we have the move higher back to the upper Blue line at 1.2135. In an ideal world the price would reach that level today but with the market volatility it may not happen until tomorrow. Once the upper Blue line is reached, we may have several more up and down moves before the price breaks lower. Since the break lower can occur at any time, I drew the Pink line which would be our immediate target once the price breaks lower. The trade here is to sell the GBP/USD when it reaches the upper Blue line at 1.2135 or you can sell it if it breaks below the Red line at 1.2085 with a target price of 1.2050 at the lower Blue line.


Thursday, August 15 2019

 In the EUR/USD we see that the price could never get above the resistance at 1.1190 yesterday and now the prior cup and handle pattern has been broken. The negative RSI 3 divergence (Blue Arrows) trumps the cup and handle normally and here that s exactly what happened. Because of this the EUR/USD is likely going lower, first to the Blue line at 1.1130 and then down to our Pink lines at 1.1100 and possibly to the lower Pink line at 1.1075. The trade here is to sell the EUR/USD on a break below 1.1130 or if it moves back up to the red line at 1.1155. Using strict risk management though if for some reason the price trades above the red line at 1.1155 close your sell trades and wait for further instructions. Once you sell the EUR/USD our target price will be 1.1100. We will then sell the break of 1.1100 if that occurs with our next target the lower Pink line at 1.1075. Remember if the price trades above 1.1155 close your sell trades and wait for me.


Thursday, August 15 2019

 Thursday, August 15 2019

As we saw the DXY (USD Futures) reached our 98.05 target yesterday causing us to close all our sell trades in the EUR, GBP, and AUD. Today we are having a small pullback in the USD as traders take profits. The top red line at 97.89 is strong support and will be difficult to break through. If 97.89 does break we then have the other red lines at 97.84 and then the trendline support by 97.72. Today likely will be a usual USD down slightly in the AM only to rally higher as we get closer to the US markets open. We will remain Long the USD for now as I expect the USD to challenge the prior swing high before it reverses for it down swing. Once the DXY trades above 98.05 it should have another big day to the upside. For those who want to reduce risk wait until the DXY trades above 98.05 before selling the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Will update the individual charts shortly.


Wednesday, August 14 2019

 Wednesday, August 14 2019

 I want to keep it simple for the GBP/LJSD since the setup is very simple. The 2 Blue lines show a Flag pattern which is a continuation pattern and means the price will likely break lower once the lower Blue line is violated. If by some chance the price does move above the upper blue line then we have the super strong Orange resistance line and then the Red line which is also strong resistance. The trade possibilities are quite simple here today. If the price trades below the lower Blue line or below 1.2045 then sell the GBP/USD using a 10 Pip stop and a take profit TBD. I’m inclined to sell the GBP/USD if it trades up to the upper blue line as well, so if the price trades up to 1.2102 sell the GBP/USD using a 10 Pip stop and a take profit at the lower blue line at 1.2045. If the price breaks above the upper blue line then it will likely be stopped by the Orange line at 1.2123, so if it trades that high sell the GBP/USD at 1.2123 using a 10 Pip stop and wait for my updated take profit if that scenario plays out. No buys at this time since the Flag pattern is screaming lower prices are coming.


Tuesday, August 13 2019

The USD futures have headed higher as we expected with the US stock market rocking and rolling today. Its just amazing how all the markets are tied together, that is why trading is not black and white, it is many shades of Grey and there are so many different factors you must consider while planning your trades for the day. Gold topping has caused the Stock markets to rally, and caused the significant move higher in the USD. The USD futures are now moving above the upper blue resistance line, once that level is cleared, we have upside to the Orange line and the Red lines above. USD up means EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD down, along with Gold. Let’S ride this wave, because my analysis was basically perfect from this morning we are again able to earn outsized profits.


Tuesday, August 13 2019

The EUR/USD was headed lower until the S&P futures went from up 6 to now down 12. Due to the volatility in the Equity markets money is moving into treasury bonds which is causing interest rates in the USA to head lower. Lower interest rates then causes the USD to head lower since there are less people outside the USD buying US Bonds and thus the need for US Dollars is lower. As I said earlier until the stock markets stabilize there is going to be extreme volatility in the major currencies as well. We still have about 3 h hours until the US markets open so a lot can still happen today. As for the chart above, if the price trades below the 2 blue lines or below 1.1195 1 recommend selling the EUR/USD, the price would need to trade above the Orange lines to even make me consider buying since we still have a negative RSI 3 divergence indicating the EUR/USD will likely head lower. At this point I only advise selling the EUR/USD but not until it trades below the 2 Blue support lines or below 1.1195.


Monday, August 12, 2019

Monday, August 12, 2019

On our GBP/USD buy trade we see the price reached the Blue line which was our initial price target and has pulled back slightly. There could be more upside to the GBP/USD though since the USD has pulled back due to the US equity markets selling off pre-market due to the problems in Hong Kong. At this point we want to wait until the price of the GBP/USD trades above the Blue line or above 1.2106 before buying the GBP/USD again. The blue line is the prior lower arm of the prior triangle and a place where the price can reverse and head lower. Wait for the GBP/USD to trade above 1.2106 and place a buy order, use a tight stop of 1.2096 with our take profit being the Red line at 1.2180. Remember he price could reverse here and head lower so wait for 1.2106 to place buys, if the price does reverse I will update the signal.


Wednesday, August 8, 2019

Wednesday, August 8, 2019

Quick update on the EUR/USD using the 15-minute chart. We see the price went slightly below the lower pink line of the triangle shown on the daily chart but it has formed a positive RSI 3 divergence at the low which indicates the price will reverse here as we expected and head back up to the upper pink line at 1.1230. I opened a buy once the positive RSI 3 divergence formed since that told me there was a 95% chance that the price would head higher. If you bought the EUR/USD you want to place your take profit at 1.1230. You can also use a trailing 10 Pip stop as the price moves higher.


Wednesday, August 8, 2019

The USD/JPY has gotten hammered recently due to the volatility in the equity markets. The JPY is considered a safe haven and when stocks are going down investors buy the JPY causing the USD/JPY to head lower. We see that the Red line stopped the decline and was tested twice and held both times. The Blue line is the immediate resistance level and must be pierced before the price can go higher. With the equity futures positive today we could see this recover today and head higher. Do not open a buy position though until the price trades above the blue line at 106.30. I like the long lower wicks the prior 2 candles both stopping at the red strong support line. It would appear the USD/JPY is ready for a reversal higher here. Wait for it to trade above 106.30 though before you buy it. I will give you target prices once the buy trades execute.


Wednesday, August 8, 2019

Wednesday, August 8, 2019

The GBP/USD is trading within a symmetrical triangle noted in blue. This is normally a continuation pattern of the prior trend which is down. You can also call this a bear flag or bear pennant pattern, all indicating the price is going to move lower. With that said I wouldn’t be surprised to see it move higher. Sometimes even the best chart patterns don’t predict correctly what is coming and I think this is one of those times. For the GBP/USD to move higher though it will need to trade above the upper blue line or above 1.2190. If it can trade above this level then there is a good chance the price will move up to the orange line at 1.2285. The trade here is to buy the GBP/LJSD at 1.2190 using a 10 Pip stop loss and a target price of 1.2285. Ifthe price trades below the lower blue line though that would signal a sell trade, if the price trades below 1.2125 you would sell the GBP/USD and await further guidance from us.


Wednesday, August 7, 2019

Wednesday, August 7, 2019

Crude Oil is again getting crushed today as the equity futures turn from Green to Red on further trade war worries between the USA and China. With Crude Oil today though we have an opportunity here since the EIA report is being released in about and hour. Yesterday’s API report showed a draw of abou7 3.5 million barrels. The EIA estimate is a draw of about 2.8 million barrels. If the draw comes in larger along with a draw in gasoline, we could get a nice pop in the price of crude oil. Because risk management is our primary concern, we are using our significant support/resistance levels to help guide us when to place the trade to buy or sell. The Blue line at 52.18 is strong support and has held thus far, a move below this line will likely take the price down to the Pink line at 50.37. If the price can stay above the blue line then we have the 2 orange and red lines above. The red line is the most significant resistance level at 53.66. My gut feeling is the EIA report will be bullish and the price will bounce, but if the price trades below 52.18 you may consider selling WTI with a target of 50.37


Wednesday, August 7, 2019

Wednesday, August 7, 2019

On our Nat Gas trade, we see the positive RSI 3 divergence is making the price move higher. I still have an open position bought yesterday at 2.091 but this one I’m holding until it reaches the red line at 2.161. Most likely the price will continue higher though up to the Blue line at 2.273 and possibly up to the 2.33.6 area (Line not shown). As I told you yesterday this was a trade that based on back testing had a win rate of 98%. When I tell you, the trade has a close to 100% probability of winning its best to follow my trade advice.


Wednesday, August 7, 2019

Wednesday, August 7, 2019-ubcfxinvest

 I’m showing an expanded view of the DXY chart this morning to show you where all those lines come from. Normally I only show a closeup so you can see the present market action but this chart is important since the 4 Blue lines constitute very strong resistance. Yesterday the DXY went up to the level of the Blue lines twice and failed to pierce this area due to sellers coming in to knock the price down again. The 4 blue lines, the highest at 97.80 and the red line at 97.25 define the parameters of where the USD is headed. A move above the Blue lines and we switch to long USD by selling the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, etc. A move below the Red line will indicate further downside in the USD which will keep us in Buy positions. For now, until the Price moves above or below, I recommend to remain Buy on the EUR/USD, and GBP/USD. The AUD/USD has its own issues dealing with the China tariffs so I would stay away from that.


Monday , August 5, 2019

The GBP/USD chart is very simple, if it can trade above the Red line then its going up to one of the Blue lines above. As you can see the GBP/USD has already traded up to the Red line and pulled back. The Red line is at 1.2190 so that is the level which must be pierced in order for the GBP/USD to head up to the Blue resistance line. The lower Blue line is at 1.2315 so the trade here is to buy the GBP/USD once it trades above 1.2190 with a 12 Pip stop loss at 1.2178 and a take profit at 1.2315 so there is a profit potential of about 125 Pips in this trade.


Thursday , August 1, 2019

UBCFXivest

The GBP/USD went slightly below our double red lines at its low but appears to be possibly reversing now. I opened 2 buy positions and am using trailing stops to manage the positions. Brexit is still the main factor pulling the GBP lower but after getting crushed a bounce higher is very likely. My target price for my 2 buys is the blue line at 1.2255 but I am following the price higher with my stop loss which I am keeping 15 Pips below the progressively higher moving price. This way as the price continues higher and I move my stop higher I am locking in more and more profit and reducing risk.


Thursday , August 1, 2019

Dollar Index, United State
Dollar Index, United State

Last night was a perfect example of why using strict risk management is so important. Even though the Federal reserve cut rates as expected, Jerome Powell was a little too hawkish on future rate cuts and since everyone was short the USD when Powell came out hawkish in his news conference the shorts had to cover sparking a huge short covering rally higher in the IJSD. We remained on the sidelines though because the DXY never traded below 97.98 or the 3 Blue lines with the Red arrow. Remember I said “Do not place trades until the DXY trades below 97.98 which it never did. bur strict risk management kept us out of harms way and to live to fight another day which is tomorrow’s NFP. With the RSI 3 now 98.5 the USD is vastly overbought. You have to figure Powell has already seen the NFP report and that led to him cutting % point. The NFP is always a crapshoot but with the USD so overbought and approaching the 2 Orange resistance lines around 99.00 we will have a great opportunity to earn large profits once the NFP is released.


Wednesday, July 31, 2019

31.7-signals
31.7-signals

Let’s start talking about the FOMC tonight. We already know there is a 98% probability that the Federal Reserve is going to cut rates % point, based on the treasury bill futures. Donald Trump is trying to pressure the Fed to cut rates by h point. The US economy is still fairly strong and likely does not warrant a rate cut here at all, so what is going to happen? While the fundamentals are important, we only trade what we see technically on the charts. We know the USD has moved higher 8 of the past 9 trading days, and is overbought based on the RSI 3 near 93. We also know that the institutional traders will try to fake out retail so we must decide which way the USD is going to go based on the evidence right now. Retail traders assume the USD will fall once the Fed cuts rates, so retail is likely buying the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and Gold right now. Most likely we will see a move higher in the USD pre-FOMC with a subsequent move lower in the USD post-FOMC. We will use the 3 Blue lines as our signal, once the DXY trades below 97.98 we know the USD has reversed and that will be our signal to buy the EUR, GBP and Gold. Once the USD has reversed, we should see a 5-8 trading day move lower.


Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Gold Futures update - UBCFXInvest 31.7.19
Gold Futures update – UBCFXInvest 31.7.19

Quick update on Gold, as I said yesterday the price must trade above the Red line at 1434 before it can head higher. It tried yesterday to pierce the red line but failed. Likely we won’t have any major movements in Gold until the FOMC which is at 7PM GMT time this evening. Once the price Will break the red line, we have 2 targets, those being the 2 upper Blue lines. The lower line is at 1452 while the upper is at 1463. My suggestion is to close buys at the 1452 level since the price is likely to pullback there and then reenter on the buy side for the move higher to 1463. Remember though until the price trades above 1434 (Red Line) we are not entering any trade. Based on the channel pattern though the price should go higher and likely to the upper Blue line over the next few trading days.